Sunday, October 01, 2006

DFC VII Week Six

All Picks are in, save Barnie's NFL picks

College Games
All Times CST, all rankings from Coaches Poll

9. LSU Tigers (4-1) at 5. Florida Gators (5-0), time TBD, CBS
I'd say LSU all the way on this one, except that they are playing in the Swamp. That's gotta count for something.

7. Texas Longhorns (4-1) at 16. Oklahoma Sooners (3-1), 230p, ABC
Texas was lit up 63-13 in 03, then lost 12-0 in '04... this Oklahoma is not that good. Last season, Texas laid 45 on the Sooners, en route to the national championship. Well, this Texas team is not that good. Pick 'em.

15. Tennessee Volunteers (4-1) at 10. Georgia Bulldogs (5-0), 645pm, ESPN
Between the hedges, the Vols don't seem that bad... can Georgia shake off their issues, though?

14. Oregon Ducks (4-0) at 20. California Bears (4-1), 7pm, ABC
Gotta hand it to the Bears of Cal... ever since they were beat down by the Vols in week 1, they've gone on to score an average of around 45 points, while only giving up around 20 points per game. And unfortunately, for the Quackers, both teams are from the Pac-10--no ref advantage.

NFL Games
All times CST

Washington Redskins (2-2) at The New York Football Giants (1-2), Noon, Fox
With six divisional games on the schedule, this is the last big divisional weekend for a month. You have to wait until Nov. 12 for a weekend in which there are more than four such games, which makes these divisional contests even more special. Any weekend in which the four NFC East teams are playing each other is special because they keep knocking each other off. For the Giants, this could be the crossroads of their season. While tight end Jeremy Shockey has called out the coaching staff, Tom Coughlin still has control over this team. But this is a must win as another loss could cause more players to turn critical. The Giants are giving up 30.7 points a game and they can't get their defense off the field. Opponents are averaging 71.6 plays a game against the Giants and quarterbacks have kept their linebackers off-balance with quick offenses and no-huddle plays, leaving huge gaps in their pass coverage.

Coughlin had the bye week to fix the problem, but he faces a Redskins' offense that is gaining momentum after starting slowly. Two opening losses had everyone wondering about the offensive changes of Al Saunders but the Redskins scored 67 points in the past two weeks and Mark Brunell is one of the hottest quarterbacks in the league. Critics are silenced. Further complicating Coughlin's mission is the slight pectoral tear that will sideline linebacker Carlos Emmons for a couple of weeks. The Giants already were struggling at linebacker and losing Emmons' leadership isn't going to make it easier.

The New York Football Jets (2-2) at the Jacksonville Jaggy-wires (2-2)
Of the first-year coaches, Eric Mangini is doing one of the best jobs. At 2-2, his Jets have been surprisingly competitive and they might be catching Jacksonville at the right time. The Jaguars are on a two-game losing streak and coach Jack Del Rio has major problems along the defensive line. He played defensive tackle Marcus Stroud the past couple weeks with a bad ankle. But the injury has gotten worse so Stroud might sit out this week.

The Jaguars already lost defensive end Reggie Hayward for the season. Backup end Marcellus Wiley probably won't play because of a groin injury. Those problems leave the defensive line thin and unable to sustain much of a pass rush. That plays into the hand of Jets quarterback Chad Pennington. Pennington doesn't have a running game yet to bail him out, but he's had success working the short passing game and his heady leadership has kept the Jets' offense moving. Though they looked to be a two- or three-win team in the preseason, the Jets might now have a chance to get to seven or eight wins this year. For the Jaguars, it's a must win because if the Colts beat the Titans and the Jaguars lose, the Jags could be three games out of first in the AFC South.

Dallas Cowboys (2-1) at the Philadelphia Eagles (2-1), 315pm, Fox
T.O. return to Philadelphia is the most anticipated scene of the 2006 season. He helped to take the Eagles to a Super Bowl in 2004. His selfishness helped to rip the team apart in 2005. A former hero to the Eagles fans, Owens is now public enemy No. 1. Owens even jokes that fans will twist his recent hospitalization for a bad reaction of pain medication to "O.D., O.D." cheers.

Yet, the game itself might even exceed the hype. Both teams have emerged as the early front-runners to win pro football's most competitive division. For the Cowboys, it was expected. In the last two years, Bill Parcells has put together one of the most physical, aggressive 3-4 defenses in the league. Despite the loss of Owens, Donovan McNabb has spread the ball to receivers in no-huddle sets and is averaging 312 passing yards a game and leads the league with nine touchdown passes.

Though the focus will be on Owens, who is coming off recent ring finger surgery in his right hand, the pressure is on the Eagles. They haven't won an NFC East game since 2004, losing all six last season and their home opener this season against the Giants after blowing a 17-point second-half lead.

The Eagles' schedule was favorable early with games against the Packers and 49ers, but that just means the Eagles need to start strong in the division because they have one of the toughest closing schedules in the league. Plus, a loss to the Cowboys would mean they would have lost two of their three home NFC East games.

Injuries are a concern for the Eagles. Cornerback Lito Sheppard is trying to come back from an ankle injury that sidelined him the past couple of weeks. Third cornerback Roderick Hood is doubtful with a heel injury. For this game, the Eagles could get by without a top third cornerback because the Cowboys use more two tight end-two receiver sets, but having Sheppard back is vital.

The Eagles receivers are banged up. Donte' Stallworth is doubtful with a hamstring injury and Reggie Brown is questionable with a shoulder injury. If neither can go, McNabb will be without his starting receivers going against a defense that could frustrate a tight-end dominated offense.

Another key injury to follow is to Brian Westbrook, who is considered the X factor in the Philly offense. Eagles coach Andy Reid revealed Tuesday Westbrook has a bone bruise on the knee and that some cartilage might be damaged. The Eagles don't have a bye week until Nov. 5 so it's not as though they could scope the knee and get him back without a missed game.

Reid made Westbrook a last-minute scratch for Monday night's game against the Packers, hoping he could make it to the Cowboys game. So far the swelling is down, which is a good sign. But if he can't play, the Eagles could head into this key matchup understaffed on offense. Which is just what Owens wants to see.

Pittsburgh Steelers (1-2) at the San Diego Chargers (2-1), 715pm, NBC
Chargers coach Marty Schottenheimer took a lot of heat the past couple of days for playing too close to the vest in last Sunday's loss to the Ravens. With a young quarterback, Philip Rivers, Schottenheimer is back to playing "Marty Ball." With the lead, Schottenheimer is taking the air out of the ball and just running it. That backfired against the Ravens when a couple of mistakes led to the Ravens getting field position in the fourth quarter and scoring nine points to win the game. Going against his close friend Bill Cowher, Schottenheimer isn't going to turn the Chargers' offense into Air Coryell. Expect a close game. This is a critical game for the Steelers. If they fall to 1-3, they could fall out of the hot AFC North race. Hines Ward has been slowed by a hamstring injury that won't go away. Ben Roethlisberger made it through the bye week without a surgery, so that's a good starting point. But Roethlisberger is at the bottom of the NFL starters with a 34.3 quarterback rating and he knows it's time for him to step up.

Tiebreak Game
A good ol fashioned West Coast Offense showdown--Oregon vs California... total points scored

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