Tuesday, November 08, 2011

DFC XII Week Ten Results

1. LSU 9, 2. Alabama 6 (tiebreak game, 15 points total)

THE WEEK THAT WAS
It took a sophomore season, a total of 22 weeks of competition, but Drew "The Grassman" Warren finally has a helmet sticker... a weekly win to call his own, at 7-1.  And as you'll see, one solid week can sometimes throw you right back in the midst of a playoff run... and Drew is on the verge.

Late comer rookie Marky Mark Warner gets his best finish of the season thusfar, at 2nd with a 6-2 record, while Danny Powell gets 3rd at 6-2.  JustFish takes 4th, Ryan Sherman is 5th and Tyler Campbell is 6th, all at 5-3.

Finishing up the Weekly Top Ten, all at 5-3, is Jonathan Osborne at 7th, Drew Morris in 8th, Michael Nipp in 9th and Big Tom Johnson at 10th place.

Also finishing:
4-4:  James Hawbaker... Tad "The Dynasty" Roose... Eddy the Junior... The Big Wasyluka... Yours Truly... John Wolf... Croyle... Zacky Graves... Hurricane Rhett... Brad Latta.. Tommy McLeod... Jennifer Ernst... Tebershaw... David Stamper... Defending DFC Champion Trey Cartledge... Big Eddy McBroom... Dan Sellers... Scotty Latta... Randy Latta... Lil Stevie Ray... 
3-5:  David Tuck... Young Garrett Cheney... Lori "Sunshine" Beirne... Mark "The (un)Mighty" Gainey... Sarah Hasha... Greg Graves... Jessica Hawbaker... Joey Thornell... Bradley Pinkerton... DMOsborne... Matt Latta... 
2-6:  Matt Halpert...

FULL DISCLOSURE
James Hawbaker had a question about his TBA a week or so ago, concerned that the numbers I had and the numbers he had didn't quite match up.  Now, its customary for to start combing through everything about week 11, look for mistakes in typing, trying to catch anything I didn't see earlier in the season because when less than 1 point can make the difference in a postseason spot and sitting home, its important to be exact.  And I noticed two mistakes, rather large ones, actually.  In one, the Florida/Auburn game, I had the total number of points as 20 and not 23 (the final score was 17-6, Auburn) in the Tiebreak Spreadsheet--that is to say, on the "game page" I have, I had the correct score, and therefore the Weekly Top Ten was correct.  But TBAs overall were off a little.  And this past week, I had the Florida/Georgia total points correct--44--but the issue was, the tiebreak game was actually Michigan State/Nebraska.  After double and triple checking, the Weekly Top Ten was still unaffected, but again, the TBAs were slightly altered.  

So for these mistakes, I do apologize, and I continue to invite you to help me make the necessary corrections.  As for anything that should have been changed in those affected weeks, like the over all Power Poll standings and such... I'm going to leave as-is.  Chalk it up to a blown call by the refs.  Let's move on.

THE STANDINGS
FULAYTAR CONFERENCE
NORTH DIVISION
Matt Halpert, 49-31 (15.38)
Joey Thornell, 48-32 (17.75)
Rhett Barnett, 48-32 (18.88)
Drew Warren, 48-32 (19.38)
Matt Latta, 47-33 (17.88)
Zack Graves, 41-39 (13.0)
DMOsborne, 38-42 (16.75)

CENTRAL DIVISION
Jennifer Ernst, 53-27 (17.13)
Tommy McLeod, 52-28 (15.75)
Brad Latta, 51-29 (14.25)
Justin Fisher, 48-32 (19.25)
Tebe Shaw, 47-33 (17.63)
Sarah Hasha, 44-36 (13.88)
David Stamper, 31-49 (20.38)

WEST DIVISION
Dan Sellers, 53-27 (14.0)
Drew Morris, 50-30 (15.38)
Eddy McBroom, 50-30 (15.88)
Trey Cartledge, 49-31 (19.0)
Bradley Pinkerton, 45-35 (20.63) 
Tom Johnson, 44-36 (23.50)
David Tuck, 40-40 (14.63)

IF THE PLAYOFFS STARTED TODAY
(1) Dan Sellers, 53-27 (14.0)... Wins West Division, first round bye
(2) Jennifer Ernst, 53-27 (17.13) ... Wins Central Division, first round bye 
(3) Tommy McLeod, 52-28 (15.75)... Wild Card, first round bye
(4) Brad Latta, 51-29 (14.25)... Wild Card
(5) Drew Morris, 50-30 (15.38)... Wild Card
(6) Eddy McBroom, 50-30 (15.88)... Wild Card
(7) Matt Halpert, 49-31 (15.38)... Wins North Division
(8) Trey Cartledge, 49-31 (19.0)... Wild Card
On the Bubble... Joey Thornell, 48-32 (17.75)... Rhett Barnett, 48-32 (18.88)... Justin Fisher, 48-32 (19.25)... Drew Warren, 48-32 (19.38)... Tebe Shaw, 47-33 (17.63)... Matt Latta, 47-33 (17.88)

CARTLEDGE CONFERENCE
EAST DIVISION
Mark Gainey, 51-29 (15.25)
Tyler Campbell, 50-30 (17.63)
Garrett Cheney, 49-31 (23.88)
John Wolf, 48-32 (14.13)
Chris Croyle, 48-32 (21.38)
Ryan Sherman, 47-33 (13.38)
Yours Truly, 45-35 (15.63)

CENTRAL DIVISION
Jonathan Osborne, 57-23 (19.5)
Randy Latta, 54-26 (17.38)
Jessica Hawbaker, 51-29 (16.38)
Scott Latta, 49-31 (17.88)
Steven Ray, 49-31 (18.38)
Lori Beirne, 45-35 (18.88)
Mark Warner, 37-43 (21.25)

SOUTH DIVISION
Daniel Powell, 51-29 (18.75)
Eddy Jr, 51-29 (18.88)
Tad Roose, 50-30 (15.88)
James Hawbaker, 49-31 (15.13)
Greg Graves, 48-32 (14.63)
Tim Wasyluka, 46-34 (14.63)
Michael Nipp, 43-37 (16.38)

IF THE PLAYOFFS STARTED TODAY
(1) Jonathan Osborne, 57-23 (19.5)... Wins Central Division, first round bye
(2) Randy Latta, 54-26 (17.38)... Wild Card, first round bye
(3) Mark Gainey, 51-29 (15.25)... Wins East Division, first round bye
(4) Daniel Powell, 51-29 (18.75)... Wins South Division
(5) Jessica Hawbaker, 51-29 (16.38)... Wild Card
(6) Eddy Jr, 51-29 (18.88)... Wild Card
(7) Tad Roose, 50-30 (15.88)... Wild Card
(8) Tyler Campbell, 50-30 (17.63)... Wild Card
On the Bubble... James Hawbaker, 49-31 (15.13)... Scott Latta, 49-31 (17.88)... Steven Ray 49-31 (18.38)... Garrett Cheney, 49-31 (23.88)... John Wolf, 48-32 (14.13)... Greg Graves, 48-32 (14.63)... Chris Croyle, 48-32 (21.38)

THE DFC POWER POLL TOP 12
1. Jonathan Osborne, 57-23 (19.5) (1-two wks)
2. Randy Latta, 54-26 (17.38) (2-two wks)
3. Dan Sellers, 53-27 (14.0) (3-three wks)
4. Jennifer Ernst, 53-27 (17.13) (4-three wks)
5. Tommy McLeod, 52-28 (15.75) (6)
6. Brad Latta, 51-29 (14.25) (8)
7. Mark Gainey, 51-29 (15.25) (5)
8. Jessica Hawbaker, 51-29 (16.38) (7)
9. Daniel Powell, 51-29 (18.75) (NR)
10. Eddy Jr, 51-29 (18.88) (9)
11. Drew Morris, 50-30 (15.38) (NR)
12-tie. Tad Roose, 50-30 (15.88) (11)
12-tie. Eddy McBroom, 50-30 (15.88) (12)
dropped out:  Matt Halpert (10th)

AAAAAAND... THE BOTTOM FIVE...
(38) Zack Graves, 41-30... (39) David Tuck, 40-40 ... (40) DMOsborne, 38-42... (41) Mark Warner, 37-43... (42) David Stamper, 31-49


"THERE ARE THREE KINDS OF LIES IN THIS WORLD... LIES, DAMN LIES AND STATISTICS" -- mark twain

  • Amazingly enough, another season is beginning to dwindle to a close.  Ten weeks in, two weeks left, and the playoffs loom large... well, for many.  The longest DFC playoff streak is held by Mark Gainey, making the postseason from his rookie year in DFC III until DFC IX, two years ago.  The longest current streak is held by Trey Cartledge, the defending DFC champ, and Jonathan Osborne, both who have been postseason bound for four straight years.  Jonathan will have to have a monumental collapse to miss it this season, while Trey is on the edge.
  • As for those who are looking for their first playoff experience, look no further than Tyler Campbell.   In his 7th season, he's started strong many times, yet finished with a limp, though right now he's ranked 8th in the conference--and due to the expanded postseason, from 6 to 8 berths, he might get in.  Or not.
  • The longest DFC tenure without a playoff spot?  Sarah Hasha.  Ten years, including this one, and nary a game after Week 12.  While its not out of the realm of possibility to make it this season, being 5 games out of the 8th spot with only 2 weeks to go is quite an obstacle.
  • Speaking of miserable DFC performances, let's check out David Tuck this year... he's got four straight weeks, from Week 6 to Week 10, with an under .500 record... 3-5, 3-5, 1-7 and 3-5.  
  • While four weeks doesn't seem excessive, just more like a run of bad luck, its actually unusual to have such a streak.  Not counting weeks where people have gone 0-8 for lack of picks, only a few people have had 4 weeks of such failure--DMOsborne and Jason Duren in DFC VIII... both Ty Coffey and Big Eddy Mc in DFC VII... Mikey Nipp in DFC IX... Josh Crosby in DFC II... 
  • The kings of misery, though?  Tad Roose had five straight weeks of 3-5 and less in DFC III, and Garrett Cheney finished the last three weeks of DFC IX below .500, and had the first two weeks of DFC X at 1-7 and 2-6.
  • Looking at success streaks, though, first is the 4-4+ streak, finishing each week at 4-4 or better.  The current streak is Eddy McBroom, with 16 weeks.  He's getting closer to rarified air, as a number of people have gone 10 to 14 weeks, but only 11 times has it been done 16 weeks straight--his own personal best was 15 until now.  Only 5 have gone 20 weeks or more, including the unbreakable record of 45 straight weeks held by Tad Roose.
  • None other than the aforementioned Tyler Campbell holds the 5-3+ record.  He's gotten 8 weeks now of at least 5-3.
  • With a 96 game schedule each year, it takes 48 wins to go .500 for the year, and 49 to make it a winning season.  There's just something about winning 50 games, though, and 60 seems to be that special, "regardless of what happens, it was a great year" mark to make it. 
  • Those looking to beat their career high wins includes 2nd DFC'er Randy Latta (he's got 54 right now, he had 57 last season), Hurricane Rhett (51 wins in each of last two seasons, 48 right now), Brad Latta (won 54 in DFC X, at 51 right now), Tyler (won 55 in DFC VI, at 49 right now) and leading MVP candidate Jonathan Osborne, who won 62 in DFC VIII, and has 57 wins right now.
  • Osborne could feasibly make a run at the all time season win mark, that being 69, won by Yours Truly in DFC IX.  Going 7-1 and 6-2 would put him at the elusive 70 wins record, which might never be broken.
  • For those others who will likely get 60 wins this year (who are 8 wins or less away with 16 games remaining), that includes Jennifer Ernst (53 wins currently), Tommy McLeod (52), Dan Sellers (53) and Randy Latta (54) 
  • Finally, checking out our rankings overall, its always interesting to see who has remained in the Top 12, and who can't get there... Jonathan Osborne, Randy Latta and Mark Gainey have spent the entire season in that list, with Randy being #1 three weeks, and #2 seven weeks, which is impressive itself.
  • The list of those who haven't seen the Top 12 at all is longer... Chris Croyle, Tyler Campbell, Bradley Pinkerton, James Hawbaker, Scott Latta, Trey Cartledge, Joey Thornell and Hurricane Rhett have spent at least one week (and sometimes only one single week) ranked up to #13, but never higher.
  • And those who have not been in the Top 20 all season?  Drew Warren... Tom Johnson...  Lori Beirne... David Tuck... 
  • And finally, those who have languished ranked 30th and below all year?  Mikey Nipp... Sarah Hasha... DMO... Stamper... Mark Warner... 

 

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